Inside Flyer magazine recently surveyed more than 27,000 frequent travelers about travel in the age of coronavirus. While it is not exactly breaking news that this novel coronavirus has severely impacted nearly every aspect of life, it is interesting to see what this group thinks it will take for travel to make a comeback and when that might happen.
Survey Says
Inside Flyer is a monthly publication specializing in frequent flyer news. The magazine was founded in 1986 by frequent flyer guru Randy Petersen. It conducted the survey over a ten-day period in early April. Most responses, 83%, came from North America and Europe. Two thirds of respondents made six or more round-trips annually, and 9 out of 10 belonged to at least one loyalty program. Full survey results are here.
The most interesting parts of the survey pertained to opinions on when and under what conditions travel will return and the best measures loyalty programs can take to support members while travel is on hold.
When Will Travel Revive?
Sixty percent of respondents think it will take at least four months for travel to return to normal. Just 9% think it will be less than two months.
I will be pleasantly surprised if travel will be close to normal within one year. In yesterday’s quarterly earnings call, Delta Air Lines CEO Ed Bastian stated it could be up to three years before Delta sees a sustained recovery. I hope travel resumes before then.
Bastian also stated that domestic travel would recover sooner than international travel. I agree. Countries will experience outbreaks at different times and with different abilities to handle them. Restrictions on flights to various countries will continue. Restrictions may be lifted and reimposed when flare ups occur. Travelers will be more confident in and knowledgeable of the steps their own governments are taking. The possibility of getting sick in a foreign country where health insurance may not apply should be a major concern if there is any doubt about the safety of foreign travel.
How Will We Know We Can Travel?
The survey asked how people will know travel is returning to normal. Most responses related to lifting government travel bans and significant decreases in the number of new Covid-19 cases.
However, people will not travel just because governments lift travel bans, no longer require social distancing, or say the number of cases is decreasing.
Irrespective of what governments say, people will travel again only when they feel it is safe. That requires success in controlling and treating Covid-19 with a prophylactic vaccine or with minimal cost and discomfort post infection. If successful treatment requires a hospital stay, that is not something I’m willing to gamble on.
Equally important will be conducting enough testing to provide confidence that we know the amount of disease in the population. Decreasing numbers of new infections alone are meaningless.
How Can Loyalty Programs Best Support Members?
Extending status and waiving cancellation fees top this list.
Several of the programs I participate in have extended status earned for 2020 to 2021. I really appreciate it, but simply having status won’t encourage booking new trips. Waiving cancellation and change fees is more important when thinking about making travel plans in these uncertain times. If I’m certain I can cancel and get my money, miles, or points back, I would be more likely to book trips six months to a year in advance. Generous cancellation policies can work to the benefit of an airline or hotel since they could enjoy the use of my money for months and ultimately not have to provide any services.
Conclusion
As a confirmed traveler, being able to see new places, meet new people, and experience different cultures can’t come soon enough.
When do you think you will travel again? What conditions do you require to make travel feasible again?
Great article!
You shared lots of insightful information. I agree that it will take at least a year for travel to return to normal. However, I think that domestic travel for most people will be the best option initially. I myself am in a bit different of a scenario as I was already abroad in India when the pandemic started, and ended up getting stuck here. Previously, I had planned to travel throughout Southeast Asia for over a year, but not I have no idea what the future holds in store now. For now, I will just wait things out in India until the lockdown here is over and access the situation then. Also, I have written a blog post further explaining my experience during the lockdown in India, I would love for you to check it out if you have a chance!
https://exploringeducator.com/stuck-in-india-during-a-global-pandemic-a-blessing-in-disguise/
Best regards,
Karlie
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Thanks for your thoughtful comment. These are tough days for international travel. I hope you are able to follow through on your plans for SE Asia. It is a beautiful, historic and up and coming part of the world.
You are fortunate in a way to be stuck in India. Things are chaotic in the US. The virus remains rampant yet politicians are trying to pretend everything is fine. You are probably safer in India.
I read your excellent post. It was a compelling story and I’m now following your blog. You even inspired my next post as I had zero motivation today. It sounds like you may be well prepared with travel insurance. I look forward to seeing how things progress for you. Be well.
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I think I would wait until there is a vaccine for covid-19…
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I swear I responded to your comment about an hour ago but my response is nowhere to be found. Maybe it will show up later?
I feel the same way about waiting for a vaccine before travelling. That might take 18 – 24 months. I hope to be able to hold out that long. At some point, if there is sound evidence that the virus is controlled and no longer spreading I might consider travel even if there is no vaccine. But I would have to continue washing hands frequently, avoiding crowds, and all the other things I’m doing currently except staying home.
Or maybe I could just drink Lysol. Yes, that’s the ticket! LOL.
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I feel more comfortable with my choice now that you seem to think the same way, given how much you love traveling and are so experienced. And you may want to wait on the Lysol thing until it’s thoroughly tested… 🙂
Not sure why your comment did not show up, yours was not the only one this happened to…
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We should all feel good about our choices because they are our choice. We all have different factors and comfort levels that go into decisions like resuming travel. I think travel will pick up gradually as people want to see that it is safe. Let others be the guinea pigs.
Thanks for the info about comments. It makes me feel better (strangely) knowing it probably wasn’t something I did.
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I’m with you; there’s nowhere I HAVE to fly to in the foreseeable future, so I can jsut wait.
And I’m like you, always thinking I did something wrong. In this case, I hope I didn’t do anything wrong – I always thought the comment function was pretty much self-running, with no need for my intervention…
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A side benefit is my bank account likes it when I stay home. 🙂
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the more to spend on future travel!
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I’m not optimistic about an early resumption of travel. The current wave of anti-safety measures protesters could cause major postponements due to the risk of another wave of the pandemic. The relatively small numbers of protesters are monkey wrenches in the efforts for us to return to normalcy.
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You raise a good point about the protesters increasing the possibility of a resurgence of infections. I hadn’t really considered that this disease might come in waves. If Covid-19 goes through cycles of abatement and resurgences that will complicate knowing when travel restrictions can be relaxed and it will be hard for people to travel again with confidence. Thanks for the comment.
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I think that being so close to summer now, people will tend to travel very little and not very far from home.
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I think you are correct. There is too much uncertainty with Covid-19. People will feel safer staying close to home. Thanks for sharing your thoughts.
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That’s a very interesting topic that you shared some useful information on…i think when the government lifts a travel ban all should be okay but i think all should be okay by May or June, because some say the heat kills the virus? Stay safe!!
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Getting the “lockdown” over by May or June would be outstanding. When the government says it is safe to travel, I may wait a bit just to make sure. Thanks for your comment and following the blog!
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