In spite of pauses and delays in vaccine approvals for several vaccines and large inequities in availability, in April the world made marked improvement in the distribution and administration of Covid-19 vaccines. Nevertheless, troubling signs are cropping up indicating that the biggest vaccination campaign in history is in danger of failing to reach the ultimate goals of national, regional and worldwide herd immunity not because we can’t but because we don’t want to.
Current Vaccine Statistics
Through May 2, 2021, more than 1.17 billion vaccine doses have been given out across 174 countries. The latest global rate was just over 21 million doses per day. One month ago, the worldwide rate was only 16.2 million doses per day.
Enough doses have now been administered to fully vaccinate 7.7% of the global population — but the distribution has been lopsided. The 27 wealthiest countries account for 36% of the vaccinations. Visit the tracker to see the status of every country.
In the U.S. 247 million doses have been administered. The latest seven-day average is 2.3 million doses. In the last week of March, the U.S. average daily rate was just over 3 million doses per day. Enough vaccines have been given to vaccinate 38.4% of the U.S. population. 148 million Americans, 57.2% of the adult population, have received at least one dose of a vaccine. At least 106 million people have completed a vaccination regimen.
The rate at which vaccines are being administered varies greatly by state and region. The New England and northeastern states are vaccinating their populations at the highest rates. Vermont leads with 49% of the population covered. “Population covered” equals the doses administered for each vaccine type divided by the number of doses required for full vaccination.
States in the Southeastern U.S. are presently doing the worst at getting people vaccinated. Mississippi and Alabama bring up the rear with only 27.5% vaccinated. Florida’s rate probably benefits from a higher proportion of senior citizens who are most at risk and are most likely to want to be vaccinated.
Will Vaccines Defeat Covid-19
At current rates, it would take years to vaccinate a meaningful portion of Earth’s population of 7.8 billion. Worldwide, the rate of vaccination will continue to increase as new vaccines are approved, production ramps up, and less wealthy countries gain access to vaccine supplies.
To reach the point where the virus is no longer able to spread within a population because of herd immunity — the pre-existing immunity of a high proportion of individuals as a result of previous infection or vaccination — U.S. National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases Director Anthony Faucci estimates that 75% – 85% of a population would need to be vaccinated.
At current rates, reaching herd immunity would take years for the world and three months for the U.S.. It’s a life-and-death race between vaccines and virus. New virus strains threaten renewed outbreaks for which current vaccines may not be as effective.
Furthermore, there is the potential problem of the duration of vaccine efficacy. Scientists do not know how long the vaccines are good for. If the protection lasts only a year or less, Covid-19 is likely here to stay. Inoculating 75% of 7.8 billion people every year is a task that seems beyond our capabilities.
In time, higher vaccination rates should limit the Covid-19 burden around the world. There is some evidence of that in the U.S. statistics. Covid rates generally declined as the number of U.S. vaccinations increased.
In the U.S. vaccine supplies exceed demand, and the daily rate of vaccinations has dropped. There is a significant portion of the population that has said they won’t get vaccinated. Republicans make up the largest segment of the U.S. population most likely to say that they will not try to get a vaccine. According to a CNN Poll conducted by SSRS on April 29, 2021, almost half of Republicans say they won’t get vaccinated, compared with 28% of independents and 8% of Democrats. Within Republicans, resistance to vaccines is concentrated among the young. Among Republicans and Republican-leaning independents ages 50 and older, 66% have gotten a vaccine or are willing to get one, but among those younger than 50, 57% say they will not get a vaccine.
Those who are unwilling to get a vaccine are the group that is most comfortable with the idea of returning to their regular routines. Nearly nine out of 10 of them say they’re comfortable with returning, or have already returned, to their old routines. That compares with 63% among those who haven’t gotten vaccinated but plan to, and 58% among those who have received at least one dose of the vaccine. The low rates of vaccination in Republican leaning states seems to bear out the conclusions of the CNN poll.
Where Do We Go From Here
I’m no epidemiologist and I don’t even play one on TV. Nevertheless, my two cents is that reaching the goal of herd immunity in the U.S. and other places afflicted with large segments of the population who are vaccine hesitant will require offering benefits to vaccinated people that the unvaccinated won’t have. Proof of vaccination could be used to allow near capacity indoor dining, attendance at sporting events and other performances, and vaccine passports could be used to allow travel with little or no quarantine.
While getting vaccinated or not is a personal decision, I’m comfortable in withholding certain benefits from those who choose to remain unvaccinated. The cost and effort governments, citizens and businesses invested in attempting to reach herd immunity and return safely to normal pre-pandemic life and the costs and hassles of being required to continue Covid-19 safety measures indefinitely outweigh any harm to people who are unvaccinated voluntarily.
Final Thoughts
The progress of the fight against Covid-19 shows that, with a few breaks along the way, vaccines are the way to win the war against the virus. Vaccines, however, are only effective if people choose to take them. It would be a humanitarian and economic catastrophe if we have a safe and easy method to beat Covid-19 but fail to do so because a significant segment of the population sees no personal benefit to it.
These are my thoughts. Please share your perspective on vaccines, herd immunity, and the benefits, if any, of allowing vaccinated people to enjoy certain privileges that unvaccinated folks don’t have. Thanks!
All charts are from the May 3, 2021 Bloomberg Vaccine Tracker
Hopefully a safe Covid-19 vaccine will become available to every human being on the planet a lot sooner than anticipated. …
I typically receive the annual influenza vaccination every fall, though for the last few years I’ve specifically asked for a placebo … to which I receive a serious look by the nurse, who’s clearly not amused by my attempt at humor with the otherwise serious topic.
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Vaccinating everyone in the world is a task never before undertaken. It will take a huge effort and it appears that annual booster shots are required. Every human deserves to be protected.
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It’s not increasing at the rate I’d personally like. But in the end we will probably have to settle for the vulnerable, the elderly or those with underlying illnesses etc to be be vaccinated plus those outside those groups who choose to. Personally I have some issues here with people who dont want me to get vaccinated so I’m holding back for now but hope to get it mid-year now. My parents have their first shot and they’ve been ok bar the first couple of days so once they get the second hopefully that will convince others not to be quite so worried.
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Interesting that vaccine hesitancy has taken a foothold in Australia. From what I hear, Australia’s political parties are united in promoting vaccines and the general response to the pandemic.
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💜 Australia is The Largest Island Nation and The Only Country that is a Continent EveryOne; along with the likes of Canada Australia is One of The Most Popular Destinations for Travel and Emigration…ergo the Population in Australia is Probably The Most Diverse on This Planet that Some Name Gaia and has a Plethora of Interesting Fauna and Flora; while Generally Laid Back Australians have Really Stringent Rules for just about EveryThing yet Will Turn on a Dime to Change Rules if Deemed Necessary…in Summary I AM Guessing that Australia already has ‘Herd Immunity’ due to Diversity of The Population, Weather, Natural Selection, AutoImmune Systems and SHEER BLOODY MINDEDNESS SURVIVING!!! 😂🤣😅😆😁😄😃😀🙂 ; so Being a Human BEING ‘DOWN UNDER’ 🙃 is an Amazing, Awesome, Incredible, Extremely Healthy and Lovingly Wealthy Way To Live 🤠
…💛💚💙…
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The Aussies think so.
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💜 I THINK!!! The AutoImmune System Works EveryOne; if I AM WRONG!!! as, No Doubt, Many of YOU!!! “Vaccine” Takers WILL!!! Insist I AM, then I Should Be Sick or Dead yet some of Us Die from “Vaccination” or Develop Severe Abnormalities…ergo I THINK!!! that We ALL Agree it’s about a Personal CHOICE!!! because if YOU!!! ARE “Vaccinated” YOU!!! BELIEVE THAT YOU!!! ARE PERFECTLY PROTECTED!!! while Those NOT!!! “Vaccinated” ARE “Punishing” The “Vaccinated” who ARE PERFECTLY PROTECTED; so, what is Right or WRONG!!! EveryOne 🤔?
…💛💚💙…
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Perhaps we should listen to what doctors say. They aren’t always right, but I’ll take their consensus over conspiracy theories. Let’s let vaccinated people enjoy their immunity by opening up society for them only.
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💜 Totally Agreed EveryOne; for an Anti-Social Individual like Me this Tiny Virus Thingy is a Blessing as I don’t like Being Around People very much as Their Energy is InCompatible with Mine and that’s what has Me Feeling Very UnWell…so; just for the record, I Do Sincerely Wish ALL YOU!!! “Vaccinated” Folk Well with YOUR!!! Social Activities, GOOD LUCK!!! To ALL of Us 🤗
…💛💚💙…
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I got my second dose yesterday and am feeling very relieved! In Michigan where my wedding is they aren’t allowing banquet halls to open unless 60% of adults in the state are vaccinated. Seems the vaccinated people are being punished by the decision of others not to get vaccinated…
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Whoo hoo! And it sounds like you are feeling fine. You make a good point that someone who won’t get vaccinated is punishing everyone else.
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💜 The worst thing about “scientific empirical evidence” is that when it’s proved wrong few people listen until a lot later; it’s Crystal Clear Clarity that “conspiracy theorists” turn out To Be Right
…💛💚💙…
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thanks for such an informative post. it’s a shame that the decision to get vaccinated became so politicized…
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Vaccines are controversial enough without throwing politics in the mix.
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exactly, and we all know who we can thank for that…
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That would be someone whose last name rhymes with Trump.
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🙂
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Very comprehensive John and well delivered! 👏👏👏
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Much appreciated Cindy. I hope your vaccine appointment comes through.
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You’re so welcome John. Thanks, I’m sceduled for the second on the 16th❣️
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Great to hear that! Getting vaccinated was a big relief for me.
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There are a variety of opinions out there about vaccines. However, I choose to be a guinea pig, rather than a victim. We know of people who have died from Covid and another who now has full blown uncontrollable Type 1 Diabetes from it. It is not dying we should be afraid of, but surviving with long haul symptoms. A normal auto immune response to Covid may not be enough and indeed only protects about a third as well as the vaccine. But to each their own. It looks like a long road to herd immunity from where I sit but this may result in the thinning of the herd. Stay well John. Allan
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If I recall correctly, your son works in healthcare so you are getting good advice. I hope we can get herd immunity through vaccines rather than people getting infected. With soon to be 600,000 dead Americans, there is definitely thinning of the herd. Take care. John
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I affirmed in a Facebook query that I have completed the vaccine regime with no problems. The anti-vaxers descended on me and others like a plague of locusts. The hate and vitriol were vicious. The group moderator ended up deleting the poll because of the incredible toxic comments.
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Vaccine refuseniks don’t seem to be susceptible to logic and rational thought. It is great you are fully vaccinated. I know I feel much safer.
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Glad to see that progress is being made on vaccines. It’s sad to hear those stories of people who refused to get vaccinated and then end up in a hospital in ICU. I for one will gladly take my two jabs when the time comes.
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It wouldn’t be so bad if the vaccine refuseniks only risked their own health. Unfortunately, deciding not to get vaccinated risks the health of everyone around such people.
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There are people I know are refusing to accept the vaccine. Here in Canada our numbers are escalating. ..the varient is taking over. We are in lockdown
.but on a positive side I hope we will get past this mess.
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It is hard to believe a significant segment of people don’t care if their failure to be vaccinated gets someone else killed or seriously ill. The person they infect could easily be a relative, friend or coworker.
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They really must thier vaccines to protect others
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Very informative. We believe that vaccination is the way forward. It is incredible that so many people are refusing to accept the vaccination yet peoples in countries swamped by the virus are crying out for the vaccines. Here in England the Vaccine program is fantastic yet there is still a portion of the population who will not take the offer of the jab. There is a promotion where well known celebrities are pleading with these people to get the jab and dispel fears of side effects, lets hope this is successful as the more people protected the better.
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Agreed. The more people protected the better. I’ve been fully vaccinated for a couple of months and would gladly do it again even though I had side effects from the second shot. Side effects beat having Covid any day. Thanks for reading and sharing your view.
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💜 Medical Practitioners Play Guessing Games where We Get Three Different Diagnoses from Three Different, Honest Doctors, fortunately for Me I Trust My Honest “whackjob” Doctor who advises against vaccines and encourages the AutoImmune System ergo I Wish YOU!!! Well with YOUR!!! Prescriptions; each to their own and I Respect ALL OF YOUR!!! Opinions
…💛💚💙…
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As long as people are acting in good faith, I respect their opinions on vaccines. Some refuse a vaccine just to be ornery.
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Interesting numbers Joh and obviously I’m with you that the vaccine is the way forward. There is a sizeable chunk of the population here in Belgrade that refuse to take the vaccine. It always amazes me how people are able, on the back of no solid evidence, to sign up to certain conspiracy theories.
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💜 YOU!!! Obviously Believe in Leeches, Bleeding Bad Blood, Drilling Holes in Heads to Release Bad Vapours and, of course, Frontal Lobotomies; so Grateful that I AM NOTHING!!! like YOU!!! leightontravels whose travels have taught YOU!!! NOTHING!!!
…💛💚💙…
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And here’s another whack job.
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💜 Pharmaceutical Greed EveryOne; that is ALL
…💛💚💙…
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Soon to be 600,000 dead Americans probably wish they had taken a vaccine.
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